NATIONAL ONE
Saturday 29th January
Exeter Chiefs v Penzance & Newlyn
Exeter, continuing to push Bristol all the way for the Premiership promotion place, entertain a Penzance & Newlyn side who can beat the best at the Mennaye Field, but struggle on their travels.
Exeter put in another excellent performance on Saturday to beat in-form Bedford and become the first away side this season to win at Goldington Road. Needless to say, they maintained their incredible record of gaining a bonus point in each match and made it 14 out of 14. They remain in third place in the league and trail Bristol and Plymouth by only four points, and have two games in hand on Albion. Exeter return to the County Ground on Saturday where they have only been beaten once this season, a one point reversal to neighbours Plymouth.
Penzance & Newlyn recorded another home victory on Sunday, beating Nottingham 38-25 to stay in seventh place. This was their seventh win from nine starts at the Mennaye and they have gained 32 of their 48 league points from their home games. Away from home it is a different story, their three wins all coming at lower league sides Orrell, London Welsh and Nottingham. Last time away from home they were thrashed 30-3 at Coventry.
Penzance beat Exeter 15-9 at home earlier in the season, their first win from three league meetings. Exeter should take their revenge on Saturday
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs to win by 14 points
London Welsh v Coventry
Coventry, playing their best rugby of the season, go to Old Deer Park on Saturday looking for their fifth win in succession.
After running Pertemps Bees to one point a fortnight ago, London Welsh would have been looking to build on this last weekend, but unfortunately they had a bad day and suffered their worst away defeat of the season, 43-13 at Rotherham. This was their fifth defeat on the run and leaves them in 12th place in the league, two points ahead of Henley and six in front of Orrell. Their home record is no better than their away record and they have still only got the 34-30 win against Nottingham to their credit from eight starts.
Coventry on the other hand are in a rich vein of form at the moment and maintained their unbeaten record in 2005 with a 50-14 win at Henley on Saturday, their biggest win of the season. Having lost the points from the Rotherham home game, they are now in ninth place, but there is only seven points separating the teams from positions four to nine, and if they continue to improve, they could quite easily leap up the table. They have been very difficult to beat at home this season but their away record is very average. They have only won at lower placed sides Orrell, Henley and Nottingham and if they add London Welsh to this list on Saturday, they will have claimed the scalps of the bottom four teams away from home.
London Welsh have the better of this fixture over the years and have only lost once to Coventry at Old Deer Park since 1998. Coventry beat London Welsh at the Butts Arena earlier in the season and on current form are likely to complete a league double on Saturday.
Prediction: Coventry to win by 12 points
Orrell v Bedford Blues
Down to nine games remaining and the picture at the bottom is not changing. The bottom three, Orrell, Henley and London Welsh, have not won a game between them from the 12 played in total in 2005, and it is unlikely Orrell will break the duck here as Bedford visit Edge Hall Road.
Orrell went to Pertemps Bees last Saturday and lost 38-25, which is an improvement on recent results. They remain in bottom position in National One with only one win to their name this season, and are looking favourites to be playing National Two rugby next season. They have only played 7 of their 17 matches at Edge Hall Road and Henley are the only away side not to leave with the league points.
Bedford have been going really well lately and were beaten for the first time in the last six matches on Saturday when they lost their unbeaten home record to a very good Exeter side. They sit in sixth position in the league, but will be aiming to finish in fourth spot. They have won four from eight away, at Henley and London Welsh, and more significantly, Otley and Rotherham.
Orrell pulled off a surprise draw at Goldington Road in October and beat Bedford in the previous five league meetings. Sadly, they are not the team they were, and it will be a big shock if they add to this unbeaten run at the weekend.
Prediction: Bedford Blues to win by 10 points
Otley v Pertemps Bees
Although only six league points separate these two teams, the form guide tells us that Otley are playing exceptionally well at the moment and Pertemps Bees are out of sorts, which points to a four or five league point victory to the Yorkshiremen on Saturday.
Otley put in another good performance on Saturday at Cross Green beating improving Sedgley Park 36-3. This was their fourth win in the last five games and they are now in fifth place, level on points with Rotherham. They have played eight matches at home this season and have only been beaten by Bedford, but they have yet to entertain any of the top three.
After a run of five successive defeats, Pertemps Bees have won three of their last four, but the wins have all come against the bottom three at home, and the nature of the wins and the scores have not been particularly impressive. After an excellent start to the season, performances dipped in the latter part of 2004 and they have dropped to eighth place in the league. They have won three from eight away matches, again at bottom three Orrell, Henley and London Welsh.
Otley and Pertemps Bees share a very even playing record against each other. Pertemps Bees won their home tie 32-19 earlier in the season and Otley are expected to reverse this on Saturday.
Prediction: Otley to win by 12 points
Plymouth Albion v Rotherham Titans
The only team not to have a game last weekend, second placed Plymouth will be itching to get back to keep the pressure on leaders Bristol and build on their unbeaten run of nine matches.
Plymouth have played away in their last two fixtures so return to Brickfields for the first time since 3rd January. They are second in the league, level on points with Bristol but they have played two games more. They have not been beaten since October and are the only team in the division not to have lost at home, although Otley managed an 11-11 draw in early December.
Rotherham won for the second successive match on Saturday when they beat London Welsh 43-13. They also had the added bonus of being credited the points for the away game at Coventry and consequently jumped up to fourth position in the table. Incredible really when you consider that prior to the last two matches they had lost six of their last seven played. Rotherham have played seven matches on their travels this season and only won two, predictably at Orrell and London Welsh.
These two sides have only met three times in league rugby and Rotherham have won them all. Plymouth did however knock them out of the Powergen Cup this season, beating them by one point at Clifton Lane. They should add a second victory to their record on Saturday.
Prediction: Plymouth Albion to win by 10 points
Sedgley Park v Henley Hawks
After two hard games away from Park Lane, beaten heavily on both occasions, and unable to score a try in either, Sedgley Park have a good opportunity to get back to winning ways against a Henley side who have won only one match, against fellow relegation candidates London Welsh, from their last twelve starts.
Although Sedgley Park weren’t expected to beat either Bristol or Otley away from home over the last two weeks, their recent improvement suggested they would get closer than the respective 62-9 and 36-3 scorelines. None of the bottom five have won in the last fortnight so Sedgley stay in 10th place. Although they look to have done enough already not to be drawn into the relegation fight, they are unlikely to improve on their present position as they trail ninth placed Coventry by 14 points. They have won four of their eight home games to date, against Orrell, Penzance, Pertemps Bees and Rotherham.
Henley continue to struggle and went down by their heaviest home defeat of the season on Saturday, losing 50-14 to Coventry. They remain next to bottom of the league, four points ahead of Orrell. They have played nine matches away from home this season and are the only team in the division not to have gained a point.
Henley beat Sedgley Park 41-19 at Dry Leas in October and will be desperate to complete the double. The only time they have met previously in a league match at Park Lane, Sedgley ran out 42-27 winners, and they are expected to win again on Saturday.
Prediction: Sedgley Park to win by 8 points
Sunday 30th January
Bristol Shoguns v Nottingham
Bristol get back to league rugby on Sunday and look to maintain their top spot with a home victory against Nottingham.
Despite going out of the Powergen Cup at the quarter-final stage against Gloucester at Kingsholm on Saturday, Bristol covered themselves in glory, and will have convinced themselves and the rugby world that should they win this division, they will be a threat to anyone in the Premiership. They are one of three teams in with a chance of being promoted and presently hold the tag of favourites. They have only lost one match from 14 played, at home to Plymouth at the end of September.
Nottingham played better on Sunday but were still beaten 38-25 at Penzance & Newlyn. They have now lost their last five matches and are still waiting for their first win of 2005. They stay in 11th place in the league, 10 points ahead of London Welsh in 12th position. Away from home they have managed only one victory, at Pertemps Bees, from the eight they have played.
In their first ever league meeting, Bristol slaughtered Nottingham 66-28 at Ireland Avenue earlier in the season. That score will take some beating, but they should record another comfortable victory on Sunday.
Prediction: Bristol Shoguns to win by 18 points
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