NATIONAL ONE
Saturday 19th February
Bedford Blues v London Welsh
Only eight matches per team remaining in National One and we have a terrific battle at the top with any one of three teams in a position to win the race for promotion, five teams following the leading group divided by only two points, and three teams battling to avoid the drop.
Saturday’s match at Goldington Road sees Bedford, in fourth place, chasing the top three, take on a London Welsh side, improving of late, but unable to post a win that would take them away from a relegation spot.
Bedford surprisingly lost 17-12 at home to Rotherham on Saturday, only their second home defeat of the season and second loss in the last eight league matches. They move up to fourth place as a result of the bonus point, the last team in the division to collect their first losing bonus point of the season. They have little chance of progressing to a higher position than fourth, as they trail third placed Plymouth by 13 points, and they are in a group of five teams between fourth and eighth separated by only two points.
London Welsh put up another hard fight on Saturday, going down 14-5 at home to leaders Exeter, which was a great improvement on their 67-19 defeat to the same opposition in the Powergen Cup in October. They have now lost their last seven matches and have dropped into one of the relegation positions, occupying 13th position, one point below Henley and seven ahead of bottom club Orrell. They have won one of their eight away matches this season.
Bedford won 46-24 when they visited Old Deer Park in October. They have beaten the Exiles on seven of the nine occasions they have met since 2000 and are likely to add another victory to their tally on Saturday.
Prediction: Bedford to win by 10 points
Coventry v Plymouth Albion
Two in-form teams, both unbeaten in their last six matches, meet at the Butts Arena on Saturday, in the top clash of the day in National One.
Coventry slaughtered Midlands neighbours Pertemps Bees 50-7 in their last league match at the Butts Arena a fortnight ago. They are unbeaten in 2005 and have won eight of nine matches in National One at their new home. Although they are in eighth place in the division, they only trail fourth placed Bedford by two points. They have four home matches left to play and they are against the teams presently occupying the top four positions in the league.
Plymouth have not played since beating Rotherham at home on 29th January. Recent results at the top have gone in their favour and they now find themselves in third place, only one point behind second placed Bristol, and three behind leaders Exeter.
They have not been beaten since October, a run of ten matches in which they have won nine and drawn one. They are the only team in the league not to have lost at home this season, and they have won seven of their nine away games.
This is the toughest call of the day and could go either way. Plymouth thumped Coventry 46-8 at Brickfields in October and completed a league double over them last season. They may sneak in again on Saturday.
Prediction: Plymouth to win by 3 points
Henley Hawks v Otley
Relegation threatened Henley host Otley at Dry Leas looking for another victory to build a gap between themselves and the bottom two.
Henley won away for the first time this season last time out at Sedgley Park by a single point to record their first victory in 2005 and complete a league double over the Manchester side. As a result, they jumped above London Welsh into 12th place and lead the Exiles by one point and Orrell by eight. They have played eight matches at Dry Leas this season and beaten London Welsh and Sedgley Park
Otley have not played since beating Pertemps Bees on 29th January and they are in fifth place, with a game in hand on their rivals. They have been going well this year and have only lost one of their last six matches. Their away record is not too brilliant though. They have played eight times and won three and drawn one.
Otley have a marvellous record against Henley. They have won eight of their nine league meetings and Henley’s only success came in a 5-0 win in January 1999. Otley should continue this winning run on Saturday.
Prediction: Otley to win by 6 points
Nottingham v Rotherham Titans
Nottingham finished 2004 on a high winning three of their last four matches, but they have still to record a victory in 2005 from six games played. Thankfully for them, they have probably accumulated enough points already to maintain their National One status.
They visited Bristol in their last league match and were heavily beaten 43-0. Although they have lost their last six matches, the three teams below them have only managed one win between them, therefore they have remained in 11th place, and still lead 12th placed Henley by eight points. They have played nine matches at home this season and beaten Sedgley Park, Henley and Orrell.
Rotherham had their best win for sometime on Saturday when they defeated Bedford 17-12 and moved up to sixth position in the league. After a dip in form that saw them dispense with the services of coach Mike Schmid, they have now won three of their last four matches. Their away form is poor though and they have only won three of nine played.
These two have only met once before in the league when Rotherham won 35-26 in their home game earlier this season. They are likely to complete the double on Saturday.
Prediction: Rotherham to win by 8 points
Pertemps Bees v Bristol Shoguns
Pertemps Bees have not hit their early season form for some time now, but they will need to be at their best on Saturday when they welcome a Bristol side to Sharmans Cross Road who have lost their last two matches.
Bees went down heavily at Coventry last time out and stayed in ninth position. It is likely this is where they will finish as they are nine points behind eighth placed Coventry and 14 ahead of tenth placed Sedgley Park. They have played eight matches at home and won six, only Nottingham and Exeter coming away with wins. They have only won three of their last 11 matches and these have all come against the bottom three teams at home.
Two weeks ago, Bristol were leading the field with games in hand, but after losing at Exeter, and last Saturday, surpringly at home to Penzance, the title and promotion race is now wide open and they now find themselves in second place, two points behind Exeter. Prior to these defeats they had only lost one of their previous 15 league games. Their defeat at Exeter is their only loss away from home from seven played.
Bristol beat Pertemps Bees in October 31-14 when both teams were at the top of their form. Bees beat Bristol 37-22 last January, but the Shoguns are fancied to get back to winning ways on Saturday.
Prediction: Bristol to win by 12 points
Orrell v Exeter Chiefs
New leaders of the division Exeter make the long journey to Lancashire on Saturday, confident of coming away with a bonus point victory at bottom club Orrell.
Orrell lost to Bedford in their last league game and stay rooted at the bottom of the league with only one win, against Henley and one draw, at Bedford to their name. At the moment they look firm favourites to be playing National Two rugby next season, for only the second time in league history.
Exeter hit the top of the table for the first time on Saturday after their win at London Welsh and they are now very serious challengers for a Premiership spot next season. After picking up a bonus point in their first fourteen matches, they have had to settle for four point wins in their last three games. They are likely to win all their remaining home matches, but after Saturday, they have some tricky away ties at Otley, Bristol, Coventry and Rotherham.
Exeter beat Orrell 41-5 at the County Ground in October. Orrell completed a league double over them last season, but prior to that, Exeter were unbeaten in nine games against the Lancastrians. They will surely win again on Saturday.
Prediction: Exeter to win by 14 points
Sunday 20th February
Penzance & Newlyn v Sedgley Park
Penzance, fresh from their astonishing win at Bristol last Saturday, will be looking for revenge against Sedgley Park on Sunday, for the one point defeat they suffered when they visited Manchester in October.
Penzance, who have a very average away record, pulled off the win of the season in beating the then league leaders Bristol on Sunday. They are now in seventh position, in the pack of five separated by two points. They are very difficult to beat at the Mennaye Field and have won seven of their nine home matches, Bristol and Plymouth the two teams to beat them.
After putting together a good run prior to Christmas, Sedgley Park have suffered a dip in form and lost their last three matches, last time disappointingly to Henley. They remain in 10th place as the form of their rivals has been worse, and they are likely to finish in either 10th or 11th position, which will be seen as a reasonable first season in National One. They have played nine away games to date and recorded two wins, at Coventry and London Welsh.
Although Penzance lost the away tie in October, they completed a league double over Sedgley in National Two in 2002/03. They are strongly fancied to win again on Sunday.
Prediction: Penzance to win by 12 points |
