NATIONAL ONE
Saturday 26th February
Exeter Chiefs v Nottingham
Seven games to go in National One, eight for the top four, and Exeter play at the County Ground for the first time this season as league leaders. They entertain a Nottingham side who, although they had probably done enough already to avoid relegation, will have been delighted to post their first win of 2005 last Saturday.
Although Exeter recorded a bonus point win at bottom club Orrell on Saturday, they were 20-5 behind after 23 minutes and had to produce a second-half fightback to take the spoils. The bonus point extended their lead at the top to three points more than second placed Bristol and six points more than third placed Plymouth. This was Exeter’s sixth consecutive victory. They have played nine games at the County Ground this season and only been beaten by Plymouth.
Nottingham pulled off probably their best home victory since joining National One when they beat Rotherham 19-12 at Ireland Avenue on Saturday. They have been having a poor run recently and this was their first victory in their last seven matches. They remain in 11th position in the league, and the four points gained on Saturday will be very welcome as it maintains the nine point gap between themselves and 12th placed London Welsh. Nottingham have played nine matches away from home this season and only won once, at Pertemps Bees.
Exeter and Nottingham met for the only occasion in recent times last October and Exeter won a close game at Ireland Avenue 24-17. They should increase this margin of victory on Saturday.
Prediction: Exeter to win by 16 points
London Welsh v Orrell
If Orrell are to have any chance whatsoever of avoiding the drop then they must win at Old Deer Park on Saturday. A victory for London Welsh would probably consign the Wigan club to National Two next season.
London Welsh sprang a surprise last Saturday when Dylan Pugh’s 85th minute penalty snatched a 17-16 victory at Bedford. They leapt over Henley in the league and are now third bottom, two points ahead of the Hawks and 11 ahead of Orrell. This was their first win in 2005 and their first in the last eight matches. They have played ten games at Old Deer Park this season and only won one, against Nottingham.
Orrell put up a good fight at home to leaders Exeter on Saturday, leading at half-time before going down 36-25. They are the only team in the division not to have gained a try bonus point this season, and they went close on Saturday, scoring three. They have now lost their last 10 matches and will need to win their home games against Nottingham and Sedgley Park and away at London Welsh and Henley to stand any chance of remaining in National One. They have played ten matches away from home this season and their best result is a 14-14 draw at Bedford.
Unsurprisingly, Orrell have the better of this fixture and have won five of the last six meetings against London Welsh. The Exiles won at Edge Hall Road last October and should complete the league double on Saturday and open up a gap between themselves and Henley.
Prediction: London Welsh to win by 8 points
Penzance & Newlyn v Otley
The clash of the day in National One sees fourth placed Penzance entertain fifth placed Otley at the Mennaye Field, the two teams separated by only one point
Penzance were pushed all the way by a very determined Sedgley Park on Sunday, only securing the game in the dying minutes. This win moves them into fourth place in the league and is probably the highest position in which they can finish. They have played 10 matches at the Mennaye this season, winning eight, and only losing to Bristol and Plymouth.
Otley also had a very difficult game last Saturday and won by the smallest of margins against a gallant Henley side at Dry Leas. They dropped to fifth place due to their failure to secure a bonus point. They are on a good run of form at the moment and have won their last three matches and won six of their last seven. They have played nine games away from home this season and won four and drawn one.
These two sides are both very difficult to beat at home and have average away records. They have only met three times in the league and the matches have all ended in favour of the home side and Penzance should continue this trend with a victory on Saturday.
Prediction: Penzance to win by 6 points
Plymouth Albion v Pertemps Bees
Plymouth Albion, still close enough to finish top of the league, welcome Pertemps Bees, more or less resigned to finishing in ninth place, to Brickfields on Saturday.
Never-say-die Plymouth did it again on Saturday. Losing 25-13 at Coventry, they scored two tries in stoppage time to share the points 25-25. They stay in third place, three points behind Bristol and six points behind Exeter, but they are still capable of overtaking both of them. They maintained the longest unbeaten run in the league, stretching 11 matches to last October. They have played eight matches at Brickfields this season and are unbeaten, although Otley came away with an 11-11 draw in December.
Pertemps Bees did not put up much resistance to Bristol and lost 23-0 at Sharmans Cross Road on Saturday. They stay detached in ninth position in the league, 12 points ahead of 10th placed Sedgley Park and 11 points behind Coventry in eighth. After a great start to the season, they have really slumped, and only beaten the bottom three teams at home in their last 12 matches. They have played ten away matches this season and only won three, again at Orrell, Henley and London Welsh.
Pertemps Bees pulled off their best league victory this season when beating Plymouth at Sharmans Cross Road in October. Plymouth will gain their revenge on Saturday.
Prediction: Plymouth to win by 14 points
Rotherham Titans v Coventry
Two sides level on 54 points in seventh and eighth positions respectively meet on Saturday at Clifton Lane. No doubt extra spice will be added to this clash as a result of their previous meeting in October, when Coventry’s 22-15 win was overturned on appeal.
Rotherham’s poor away form continued with a surprising 19-12 defeat at Nottingham last Saturday. They dropped to seventh as a result and have now won only three of their last nine matches. They are much more difficult to beat at home though and have won seven from nine, their two defeats, by Bristol and Bedford, coming by one and two points respectively.
Coventry are the form team in the division and were most unfortunate not to have beaten third placed Plymouth on Saturday. They had to settle for a 25-25 draw and finished with 14 men as number eight Dan Farani was sent off just before the end for a high tackle. However, they extended their unbeaten run to seven matches and remain in eighth place. They are still only four points behind Penzance in fourth position. They have played nine matches away from home this season and beaten the bottom four sides.
This should be a cracker. Rotherham have much the better record in this fixture and have won six of the last seven times they have met. Coventry won 26-25 the last time they faced each other in April 2003 at Clifton Lane. Rotherham’s excellent home record will make them favourites, but Coventry’s recent form may be good enough to see them through.
Prediction: Coventry to win by 6 points
Sedgley Park v Bedford Blues
Sedgley Park, whose four wins out of five in November and December look good enough to have maintained their National One status, take on Bedford at Park Lane,
who appear to have hit a bad patch.
Sedgley Park put in their best performance for a while in going down by only seven points at Penzance on Sunday. They remain in 10th place but have only won one of their last six matches. They have played nine matches at home this season and beaten Orrell, Penzance, Pertemps Bees and Rotherham.
Bedford lost for the second time in consecutive weeks at home last Saturday, this time going down by a point to lowly London Welsh. They had previously put a good run together winning six from seven, so these two losses were quite surprising. They remain in sixth place in the league, but could quite easily have been in fourth spot. They have played nine games away from home this season and have won four. They have beaten the bottom three, and their best win came in a 34-6 victory at Otley.
These two sides met for the first time in league rugby at Goldington Road in October and Bedford won a close game 13-8. Sedgley Park will be looking to build on their improved performance last week and with Bedford slipping up twice, Park are tipped to come out on top.
Prediction: Sedgley Park to win by 4 points
Sunday 27th February
Bristol Shoguns v Henley Hawks
Second top plays second bottom at the Memorial Stadium on Sunday, a game both sides will be desperate to win for different reasons.
After consecutive defeats, Bristol were glad to get back to winning ways with a 23-0 victory at Pertemps Bees on Saturday. They remain in second place but now trail Exeter by three points. They have played 10 times at the Memorial Stadium this season and been beaten twice, by Plymouth and Penzance.
Henley put up a great fight before going down 13-12 to Otley on Saturday. As a result of London Irish winning, they now find themselves in the second relegation position and trail the Exiles by two points. They have played 10 away matches this season and only won one, at Sedgley Park.
Although Henley will be giving everything in an attempt to retain their National One status, they are very unlikely to have enough firepower for Bristol, who should complete a league double over the Hawks, after beating them 41-6 at Dry Leas earlier in the season.
Prediction: Bristol to win by 14 points |
