NATIONAL ONE
Saturday 12th March
Bedford Blues v Penzance & Newlyn
Down to six matches each to play in National One with three teams still in with a chance of playing in the Zurich Premiership next season, and one team joining the probably already doomed Orrell in National Two.
A great game in prospect at Goldington Road on Saturday as Bedford and Penzance, level on 59 league points each, go head-to-head, with the winner having a good opportunity of taking over fourth spot.
Bedford won at Pertemps Bees on Saturday in the semi-final of the Powergen Shield and will now return to Twickenham for the first time since 1975 when they beat Rosslyn Park to win the (then) John Player Cup for their one and only time. They got back on the winning trail last time out in the league, winning at Sedgley Park after suffering two defeats at home. This win moved them up to fifth place in the league, only two points behind Otley and leading Penzance on points difference. Bedford have played 10 matches at home this season, winning six and drawing one and losing their last three games, to Exeter, Rotherham and London Welsh.
Penzance had a break last weekend and surprisingly lost their last match at home to Otley. They slipped from fourth to sixth as a result. The best finish they could achieve this season would be fourth, and this would represent their highest ever league placing. Although they have an excellent home record, their away form has been mediocre and they have only won four of nine games on their travels, the pick of these being the 18-11 victory at Bristol last month.
These two sides have met three times previously in league rugby winning one each and playing out a draw. Bedford won the only game played at Goldington Road in 2003, but recent form just leans towards Penzance.
Prediction: Penzance & Newlyn to win by 5 points
Coventry v Bristol Shoguns
Match of the day in National One is at the Butts Arena where form team Coventry entertain promotion-chasing Bristol, in a repeat of the 1973 John Player Cup Final.
Coventry have turned their season around brilliantly and are now unbeaten in their last eight matches. They won their last game at Rotherham and stayed in seventh place, but they are only three points behind fourth placed Otley. They have made the Butts Arena into a fortress and won eight and drawn one of the league matches there. The fixture list has given them the present top three sides to play consecutively at home, and they were unlucky not to have beaten Plymouth in their last match, and had to settle for a 25-25 draw.
Bristol will not be defending their Powergen Shield title as they were beaten by Plymouth Albion at Brickfields on Saturday. They can now concentrate all their efforts on the more important matter of promotion. They presently hold second place, eight points behind leaders Exeter with a game in hand, and their destiny will probably be known by Easter, as their next three games sees them visit Coventry and Plymouth, and entertain Exeter. They will probably need to win them all if they are to be playing in the Zurich Premiership next season.
These games have all gone with the home team in the past. Bristol slaughtered Coventry 53-10 in October but much has changed since and this should be a cracker. In a close run thing, Bristol must win to keep their promotion hopes alive.
Prediction: Bristol Shoguns to win by 3 points
Henley Hawks v Nottingham
A critical game at Dry Leas on Saturday sees next to bottom Henley host fourth bottom Nottingham, both looking for four important league points to ease their fears of relegation.
Henley were well beaten at Bristol in their last league match and they stayed in 13th place in the table. Due to London Welsh winning again they now trail them by 6 points and they really need a win here. They have only won one of their last seven matches and have beaten London Welsh and Sedgley Park at Dry Leas this season from nine played. They visit London Welsh and entertain Orrell in their next two matches so all is far from lost at the moment.
Nottingham did not kick-on from their good run before Christmas and have only won one of their last eight matches. They remain in 11th position in the league and lead Henley by 11 points, so they may have done enough already to guarantee their survival. They have played 10 matches away from home this season and only won one game, at Pertemps Bees.
Henley have won three to Nottingham’s two in past meetings. Nottingham won 42-17 at Ireland Avenue in October and Henley may get their revenge on Saturday.
Prediction: Henley Hawks to win by 5 points
Orrell v Plymouth Albion
Orrell, now almost certain to finish bottom of the league this season, welcome a Plymouth Albion side to Edge Hall Road on Saturday, buoyed by their victory over Bristol last weekend that earned them a trip to Twickenham for the first time in their history.
Orrell lost for the 11th match in succession at London Welsh and are now detached at the bottom 9 points behind Henley and 15 behind London Welsh. They look almost certain to be playing National Two rugby next season. They have only won the one match this season, at home to Henley.
Plymouth extended their unbeaten league run to 12 matches when they beat Pertemps Bees at home a fortnight ago. They are grinding out results rather than winning spectacularly and they stay in third place, three points behind Bristol, who they entertain next week, and 11 points behind Exeter with a game in hand. They have won seven and drawn one of their 10 away matches, losing at Pertemps Bees and Rotherham.
Plymouth have won the last two meetings between the sides and really need to make this a bonus point victory to keep the pressure on the top two.
Prediction: Plymouth Albion to win by 12 points
Pertemps Bees v Rotherham Titans
A mid table clash between two out of form teams at Sharmans Cross Road on Saturday as Pertemps Bees entertain a Rotherham side who, for the first time in the last six years, will not be finishing either first or last in their division.
Pertemps Bees lost at home to Bedford on Saturday to miss out on a trip to Twickenham that would have made their season. Previously, they put up a good performance in defeat at Plymouth. They remain in ninth position in a league of their own, 12 points behind Rotherham and 12 ahead of Sedgley Park. They have lost their last four league matches and have won six of nine at home this season, losing to Nottingham, Exeter and Bristol.
Rotherham lost at home to Coventry in their last league match and stayed in eighth place in the league. Although they are having a disappointing season, they are still only six points behind fourth placed Otley. Their away record is very average indeed and they have only won at London Welsh, Orrell and Bedford, from 10 starts.
This match could really go either way. On the strength of Rotherham beating Pertemps Bees on the five times they have met in league rugby, we will plump for an away win.
Prediction: Rotherham Titans to win by 3 points
Otley v Exeter Chiefs
Two sides who met for the first time this season last Saturday, have a quick return fixture at Cross Green this weekend.
Otley were well beaten 41-15 at the County Ground but remain in fourth place in the league, 13 points behind third placed Plymouth. Although Otley have performed well at home this season winning eight of their nine matches, they have yet to play Exeter, Bristol, Plymouth and Coventry, the top three and the form team in the division.
Exeter extended their lead at the top to eight points after Saturday’s victory, although they have a game in hand on both Bristol and Plymouth who meet next week. They are now in the box seat and it is the 17 bonus points from 20 matches that is making the difference. They have played nine away games this season and only lost the two derby games against Plymouth and Penzance.
Exeter have a very good record against Otley and have beaten them seven times from their nine meetings since 2000. Although the score will be much closer than last week, Exeter should still get the upper hand on Saturday.
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs to win by 8 points.
Sedgley Park v London Welsh
Sedgley Park, who have probably done enough already in their first season in National One to ensure survival, welcome London Welsh to Manchester, still battling against relegation despite winning their last two matches.
Sedgley Park disappointed again in their last match going down at home to Bedford. They have now lost their last five and can thank their four wins out of five just before Christmas for the fact they are not deeper involved in the relegation battle. They have played ten matches at home this season and beaten Penzance, Pertemps Bees, Rotherham and Orrell.
London Welsh pulled off a surprise away win at Bedford and followed that up last time out with a home win against Orrell. These two wins doubled their return for the season as they had only won two of their previous 18 matches. They have now overtaken Henley and lead them by six points with six matches to play.
These two sides have only met once before when Sedgley Park won a close game 21-17 in October. This is a tricky call on Saturday, but home advantage may see Sedgley Park complete the league double.
Prediction: Sedgley Park to win by 5 points |
