NATIONAL ONE
Saturday 26th March
London Welsh v Henley Hawks
Five games to go in National One and still all to play for at both the top and bottom of the league. The promotion place is now looking like a two horse race between Bristol and Exeter, who meet tomorrow at the Memorial Stadium, and the second relegation spot is likely to go to either of the teams meeting at Old Deer Park on Saturday.
London Welsh won two on the trot before being well beaten at Sedgley Park. They remain in 12th position, two bonus points ahead of Henley and 14 in front of bottom club Orrell. They have played 11 matches at home this season and only managed to beat Nottingham and Orrell. This is their best opportunity for a fifth win of the season.
Henley beat Nottingham at Dry Leas in their last match to move within two points of London Welsh and go 12 points clear of Orrell. They have also won four matches this season, only one, Sedgley Park, coming away from home. If they win this match they will certainly be more confident of staying up as they entertain Orrell next week.
Henley beat London Welsh in a close encounter over Christmas. London Welsh have never been beaten by Henley in four previous league matches at Old Deer Park and they should continue this winning run on Saturday.
Prediction: London Welsh to win by 8 points
Nottingham v Bedford Blues
Nottingham still look as if they need one more win to ensure they stay in National One next season, and Bedford are the highest placed team they have to face in their last five matches, so they have every chance of finishing with a flourish.
They will need to improve on their recent form though as they have only won one of their last nine league matches. They have occupied 11th place in the league for some time now and both London Welsh and Henley are in touching distance. They have played 10 matches at Ireland Avenue this season and beaten Henley, Orrell, Sedgley Park and Rotherham.
After putting a good run of form together at the turn of the year, Bedford have gone off the boil of late and lost three of their last four league matches. They sit in mid table in seventh place and have made this position their own as they finished in seventh spot in both 2003 and 2004.They have a good away record this season having played ten away matches and won six. Their losses coming at the homes of the top three and Penzance.
Bedford have beaten Nottingham the three times they have met in league rugby and they should add another victory to this tally on Saturday.
Prediction: Bedford Blues to win by 6 points
Orrell v Sedgley Park
Relegation looks an almost certainty now for Orrell, but they will not be doing their Lancashire neighbours Sedgley Park any favours, and they may provide a surprise on Saturday.
Orrell gave third placed Plymouth Albion a fright in their last match before going down 32-27, which was a very creditable performance. The fact remains though that they have lost their last 12 matches and are detached at the bottom of the league, 12 points behind next to bottom Henley. Their only victory this season came in a 26-25 win against Henley at Edge Hall Road.
Sedgley Park got back to winning ways last time out with a comfortable home win against London Welsh. This followed a barren patch in which they lost the previous five matches. They have achieved their main objective by maintaining their National One status and could yet move higher up the league than their present position of 10th.
They have played 10 matches away from home this season and won at Coventry and London Welsh.
Sedgley Park beat Orrell 22-3 at Christmas. Orrell now have a more settled side and we will stick our neck out and suggest they will get their second win of the season on Saturday.
Prediction: Orrell to win by 2 points
Pertemps Bees v Coventry
A quick return Midlands Derby fixture as Pertemps Bees aim to gain revenge for the 50-7 thrashing last month at the Butts Arena.
Pertemps Bees went down heavily to Rotherham in their last fixture and can thank their excellent start to the season that they are not in the relegation mix. They have now lost their last five matches, but stay in ninth position in the league. They have played 10 matches at home this season and won six.
Coventry’s season has been completely opposite to that of the Bees. After a very average start they have turned over a new leaf in 2005 and only lost one match, their last against leaders Bristol, in their last nine played. They are only one place above Pertemps Bees in the league, but lead them by 15 points. They have played 10 matches away from home this season and won five.
League history between the sides since 2000 shows Coventry with the upper hand early on, and, apart from last month’s game, Pertemps Bees won the previous three. With Pertemps Bees struggling at the moment and Coventry on fire, we should see a comfortable away
Plymouth Albion v Penzance & Newlyn
Another South-West Derby sees third placed Plymouth Albion entertain fifth placed Penzance and Newlyn, knowing they now need to win their last five matches to stand any chance at all of topping the division.
Plymouth lost valuable ground on the leading two when they were beaten at home to Bristol on Saturday in front of a record Brickfields crowd of 5354. Thus, the longest unbeaten run in the division, 15 matches, came to an end.
Plymouth stay in third place, but they are now six and seven points respectively behind Exeter and Bristol. They have played 10 matches at home this season and last Saturday’s defeat was their first.
Penzance had a good win away at Bedford in their last match and have now won three from their last four. They remain in fifth place in the league but with the bottom three still to play, they will be looking to leapfrog Otley and take fifth spot. They have played 10 away matches to date and won five.
Plymouth have beaten Penzance in the last five matches they have met and they have not conceded a point in winning their last three matches at home. It will probably be closer on Saturday, but Plymouth should come out on top.
Prediction: Plymouth Albion to win by 8 points.
Rotherham Titans v Otley
Derby fixtures abound this week as Rotherham welcome in-form fellow Yorkshiremen Otley to Clifton Lane.
Rotherham are having a pretty average season but last time out they posted a good 35-6 win at Pertemps Bees. They are sixth in the table and trail Saturday’s visitors, Otley, by 6 points. They have played 10 home matches this season winning seven, and only Bedford, Bristol and Coventry have beaten them.
Otley sit in fourth spot after a magnificent victory last time out against the then leaders Exeter. They have won eight of their last 10 matches and will look forward to the challenge of entertaining both Bristol and Plymouth in their last two matches. They have played 11 away matches to date winning five and drawing once.
Otley got the better of the Titans for the first time in a league match last Christmas. In what is likely to be a close match, they may complete the league double on Saturday.
Prediction: Otley to win by 5 points.
Sunday 27th March
Bristol Shoguns v Exeter Chiefs
The most important match of the weekend takes place at the Memorial Stadium on Sunday in front of the television cameras. Top side Bristol entertain second placed Exeter with one point separating the sides and the winners getting the upper hand in the promotion race.
This game should attract a massive crowd and the figures to beat are the National One record of 7800 for Coventry v Newcastle in 1996 and the Bristol National record of 7326 against Worcester in 1999.
After wobbling a bit last month when they lost consecutive matches to Exeter and Penzance, a back to full strength Bristol have done well in beating Coventry and Plymouth away in their last two matches and regained the league leadership by one point over today’s opponents. They have played 11 times at the Memorial Stadium this season and only been beaten by Plymouth and Penzance. Exeter will be looking to become the third team from the South West to beat the Shoguns this season.
Exeter were holding the favourites tag a fortnight ago but were surprisingly well beaten at Otley. This was their fist loss since 8th January and has really opened up the battle for top spot. They have played 10 matches away from home this season, winning seven and losing at Otley, Penzance and Plymouth.
Exeter beat Bristol at the County Ground last month but have not beaten at the Memorial Stadium in the two league matches they have played. In what should be a good advert for National One rugby, Bristol are tipped to win the day and move clear at the top.
Prediction: Bristol to win by 5 points. |
