NATIONAL ONE
Saturday 2nd April
Bedford Blues v Plymouth Albion
Down to the last four matches and after last weekend’s results the picture at both the top and bottom of National One has become clearer. Bristol won the clash of the top two against Exeter to increase their lead to six points, whilst London Welsh beat Henley to move six points clear of the relegation positions.
This Saturday’s match at Goldington Road is a rehearsal for the forthcoming Powergen Challenge Shield Final, so as well as both sides wanting to gain valuable league points, they will be trying to take a psychological advantage to Twickenham.
Bedford won at Nottingham last Saturday and moved up to sixth place in the league. This was only their second win in the last five matches and with Plymouth, Bristol, Coventry and Pertemps Bees to come, they may have reached their zenith for the season. They have played 11 matches at Goldington Road this season winning six and drawing one.
Plymouth completed a league double over Penzance last weekend and closed the gap on second placed Exeter to only two points. Although it will be very difficult to catch leaders Bristol, they could still finish runners-up, which would eclipse last year’s third place as their highest ever league position. The defeat at home to Bristol a fortnight ago was their first in 16 matches and they have won eight and drawn one of their eleven away matches. Their two defeats, at Pertemps Bees and Rotherham, both came in October.
Plymouth beat Bedford 19-9 in November and have won three of the five league meetings between the sides since 2002. They should add another to this tally on Saturday.
Prediction: Plymouth Albion to win by 8 points
Exeter Chiefs v Sedgley Park
After losing the top of the table clash at Bristol on Sunday, Exeter must now win all their four remaining ties to have any chance of finishing above the Shoguns, starting with what should be a fairly straightforward task of beating Sedgley Park at the County Ground on Saturday.
Exeter were favourites for promotion a fortnight ago, but successive away defeats at Otley and Bristol has left them in second place, six points behind Bristol. They had previously put a fantastic run together winning 14 of their 15 matches. They have played 11 matches at the County Ground this season and only Plymouth have beaten them, by one point in January. With Sedgley Park and Pertemps Bees yet to travel to Devon, and away trips to Coventry and Rotherham still to come, they are more than capable of finishing with maximum points. Whatever the outcome, they have had a marvellous season, and if they were to finish second, it will be their highest ever placing, beating the third position they achieved in consecutive years 2001, 2002, 2003.
Sedgley Park is a club that has definitely achieved its highest ever placing this season as they are playing in National One for the first time. After Saturday’s victory at Orrell, they are looking destined to finish in a very respectable 10th place. They have now won two on the trot after a poor run of five defeats in succession, Away from home this season they have won three from 11, at London Welsh, Coventry and Orrell.
In the first league meeting between the sides in November, Exeter won 39-25 at Park Lane. They should not be troubled in competing the league double on Saturday.
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs to win by 15 points
Henley Hawks v Orrell
A clash of the bottom two at Dry Leas on Saturday and a game Henley must win if they are to hold any chance of plugging the six point gap between themselves and third bottom London Welsh.
Henley went to Old Deer Park last Saturday and lost the crucial relegation battle 27-14 to fellow strugglers London Welsh. They are now in very serious trouble and with home games against Orrell, Penzance and Rotherham, and a trip to Plymouth to follow, they are now favourites to drop into National Two next season with Orrell. They have played 10 matches at home this season and beaten London Welsh, Nottingham and Sedgley Park.
After losing at home to Sedgley Park last Saturday, Orrell are more or less certain to be relegated in bottom position. They have now lost their last 13 league matches and we have to go back to 13th November for their only win of the season, a 26-25 victory against Saturday’s opponents Henley at Edge Hall Road. Away from home, they have lost 10 from 11 played, and surprisingly drew 14-14 at Bedford.
Henley have a very good record against Orrell and have never lost to them in a league match at Dry Leas. They simply must win on Saturday.
Prediction: Henley Hawks to win by 6 points
Nottingham v Pertemps Bees
Nottingham host Pertemps Bees at Ireland Avenue on Saturday. Two teams whose seasons have fizzled out after early promise and have only won one match between them in the last 12 played.
Nottingham lost at home to Bedford last week and stayed in 11th place in the league. Although they have only won one of their last 10 matches, they have the easiest run in of anyone, and with Bees and London Welsh to visit Nottingham, and away trips to Sedgley Park and Orrell, they should add a couple of wins to their overall total. They have played 11 matches at home this season and beaten Henley, Orrell, Rotherham and Sedgley Park.
Pertemps Bees maintained their recent poor run with a 19-15 home loss at the hands of Coventry on Saturday. This was their sixth defeat on the run and it is only due to their excellent start of the season that they are as high as ninth place. They have played 11 matches away from home this season and only beaten the bottom three. Can they add the scalps of fourth bottom to this list?
In their only other league meeting for four years, Nottingham pulled off a surprise at Sharmans Cross Road in November winning 20-13. Nottingham have yet to record a league double against any opposition in National One. They may achieve their first on Saturday.
Prediction: Nottingham to win by 5 points
Otley v Coventry
Two teams both in a rich vein of form meet at Cross Green on Saturday.
Otley won the Yorkshire derby at Rotherham on Saturday, their sixth win from the last seven matches. They held on to their fourth position in the table and now lead fifth placed Penzance by five points. Having beaten Exeter in their last home match and Bristol and Plymouth yet to visit Cross Green, they could still have an important say in the destination of the championship. They have played 10 home matches this season and only Bedford have beaten them.
Coventry were ran closer than expected when they beat Pertemps Bees by four points last weekend. They have now won eight and drawn one of their last 10 matches and now hold seventh place in the league. Away from home this season they have played 10 and won six, against all the teams lying below them in the league, with Sedgley Park yet to come.
This is one of the toughest calls of the day. Coventry beat Otley by a point in November, but Otley won the previous three meetings, including the last two at Cross Green. They are tipped to shade it on Saturday.
Prediction: Otley to win by 6 points
Sunday April 3rd
Bristol Shoguns v Rotherham Titans
Bristol consolidated their position at the top of National One with a 68-15 annihilation of second placed Exeter on Sunday in front of a National One record crowd of 10,349. They now know that three wins from their last four matches is likely to take them back into the Zurich Premiership. First up is Rotherham at the Memorial Ground on Sunday, before they finish with three away games, at Orrell, Bedford and Otley.
Bristol have done brilliantly in the last three weeks, winning a tough fixture list away at Coventry and Plymouth and at home Exeter, to move six points clear at the top of the league and they are now strong favourites to be playing Zurich Premiership rugby next season. After a wobbly period in February when they lost in consecutive weeks to Exeter and Penzance, they have now won their last five matches and are back on course for the title. This is their last home match of the season and they have been beaten twice, by Plymouth and Penzance, from 12 played.
Rotherham have had a very mediocre season and lost at home 26-6 to Otley on Saturday. They have won only one of their last four matches and have dropped to eighth position in the league. They have not travelled well this season and have only beaten London Welsh, Orrell, Bedford and Pertemps Bees from 11 away games.
Bristol beat Rotherham by only one point at Clifton Lane in November. The last time they were in the same division, in 2000, Bristol completed a league double over the Titans and they will probably repeat the feat this season.
Prediction: Bristol Shoguns to win by 16 points
Penzance & Newlyn v London Welsh
Penzance, looking to finish the season with a flourish with games against the bottom three to come, face London Welsh at the Mennaye on Sunday, fresh from winning what might turn out to be a relegation decider against Henley.
Penzance lost once again to Plymouth on Saturday, but the aggregate score of 52-43 this season against the 104-3 last season is a good indication of how much progress this club has made. They stay in fifth place in the table, but with a late run, could still finish fourth. They have played 11 games at the Mennaye this season and only been beaten by Bristol, Plymouth and Otley.
London Welsh were fighting for their National One lives last Saturday and were successful in beating Henley 27-14. They have now won three of their last four matches and are six points clear of next to bottom Henley. They may have done enough already to maintain their National One status but will still be looking for a few more points. They have played 10 matches away from home this season and beaten Orrell and Bedford.
Penzance won at Old Deer Park in November and when they last met at the Mennaye they also came out on top, winning a 78 point thriller by two points. They should win by a much larger advantage on Sunday.
Prediction: Penzance & Newlyn to win by 14 points
|
