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They have a formidable home record in the Heineken Cup and have only lost four times from 33 matches played, and have won their last 15. Three of their four home defeats have come at the hands of English opposition, Leicester beat them in 1997/98, Bath in 1999/2000 and Saracens in 2000/01, the last time they were beaten. They have been hosts to Northampton twice previously, beating them 32-16 in the quarter-finals in 2003 and 25-12 in the pool match last December.
Northampton have had a poor season by their standards but they have improved recently, and their injury time victory against Harlequins last Saturday was their third on the run and they are now in ninth place in the Zurich Premiership, but only five points ahead of bottom club Leeds. They have won three league matches away from home this season, at Harlequins, London Irish and Gloucester. Northampton did very well to qualify for the last eight of the Heineken Cup as they were struggling at the bottom of the league at the time of the group matches. They beat Llanelli and Glasgow home and away and Toulouse at Franklin’s Gardens. They have won 9 of the 21 away games in this competition. In France, they have been beaten by Grenoble in 1999/2000, Biarritz in 2000/01 and 2002/03, Montferrand in 2001/02 and Toulouse twice as detailed above. Their sole victory on French soil came against Agen in last season’s competition.
Toulouse are defending a marvellous home record and despite Northampton’s recent improvement, they are unlikely to run the Frenchmen close on Friday.
Prediction: Toulouse to win by 18 points
Saturday 2nd April 3pm
Stade Francais v Newcastle Falcons
Another Anglo-French meeting on Saturday in Paris where a top French home side will start strong favourites against their mediocre English opponents.
Current French champions Stade Francais were well beaten last weekend at Biarritz going down 41-3, and dropped to fourth place in the league. This is the sixth season they have played in the Heineken Cup and they have qualified for the quarter-finals on every occasion. This year they won pool 6, winning five of their matches and losing in Ulster. They have a tremendous home record in the competition and have only lost once, to Munster in the 2002 quarter-final, from 21 matches played. They have entertained English teams five times and won them all, beating Leicester in 1999/2000 and 2003/04, London Wasps in 2000/01 and 2001/02 and Gloucester this season. They did lose to Leicester though in Paris in the 2001 Final.
Newcastle are having an average season in the Zurich Premiership and lost at home to Bath on Sunday. They haven’t won any of their last four matches and they are seventh in the league. They did very well to qualify as winners of pool 5, winning five of their matches and only losing in Perpignan. This is only the second time Newcastle have played in the Heineken Cup, they have played in France twice, losing to Toulouse in 2001/02 and Perpignan in January.
Stade Francais should not be troubled in maintaining their fantastic home record and a comfortable home win is predicted.
Prediction: Stade Francais to win by 15 points
Saturday 2nd April 5:15pm
Leinster v Leicester Tigers
Probably the closest quarter-final will be staged at Lansdowne Road as top seeded Leinster take on ‘lucky losers’ Leicester.
Leinster beat Llanelli on Good Friday and look as if they will be finishing third in this season’s Celtic League behind Neath-Swansea Ospreys and Munster. They won pool 2 and were the only team in the competition to win all their six matches. Leinster have appeared in every Heineken Cup since its inception and have reached the semi-final stage twice, in 1996 and 2003. They have a very good home record and have won 22 of 29 matches. They have met English opposition on eight occasions winning six and losing to Leicester in 1996/97 and Sale in 2003/04. They also beat Leicester in 1997/98 and 1999/2000.
Leicester lost for the second time this season in the Zurich Premiership at the home of the bottom club, when Leeds beat them 23-22 on Sunday. Amazingly, they have yet to win at Headingley in four league matches. They are still top of the league, though Wasps have reduced their lead to four points. In this season’s Heineken Cup, results went their way on the last day and allowed them to take the second runners-up spot, having won four of their matches in pool 1 and lost home and away to Biarritz. They are the only team ever to retain the Heineken Cup and are probably England’s best hope of winning it this season. Leicester have won 17 of 29 away matches in this competition and they have played away in Ireland four times, three times as detailed in the previous paragraph and they also lost in Ulster in 2003/04.
This is a difficult call, but Leicester are tipped to maintain an English interest.
Prediction: Leicester tigers to win by 7 points
Sunday 3rd April 3pm
Biarritz Olympique v Munster
Another top tie sees the winners of the ‘pool of death’ Biarritz, entertain the best team never to have won the Heineken Cup, Munster. Due to demand, Biarritz have moved the game to the Estadio Anoeta, San Sebastien in Spain and have been rewarded with a 32,000 sell out crowd.
Biarritz inflicted the biggest defeat of the season on Stade Francais last weekend and retained their second position in the league, two points behind leaders Bourgoin.
They won pool 1 in this season’s Heineken Cup, a group containing the top two English sides Leicester and London Wasps, and only lost one match, their opening game at the Causeway Stadium. They have appeared in the Heineken Cup for the last five years and won 14 of their 15 games at the Parc des Sports Aguilera, their only defeat coming at the hands of Bath in 2001/02. They beat Leinster in 2000/01, Ulster in 2002/03 and Leinster again in 2003/04. Their only previous meeting with Munster was in the quarter-final of 2000/01 at Thomond Park which Munster won 38-29.
Munster had a good win at Newport Gwent Dragons on Good Friday and will finish second to champions Neath-Swansea Ospreys in this season’s Celtic League. They have played in the Heineken Cup every year and have a superb record. In the last six seasons they have lost two finals, three semi-finals and a quarter-final without winning it. This season they topped pool 4 winning five matches and losing to Castres Olympique. They won their three home matches and have now won 29 of 30 in Munster, including the last 25 stretching back to 1997/98. Away from home they have won 16 of their 37 matches. They have met a French team every year and played in France no less than 14 times, only winning five, twice at the semi-final stage.
Although Munster have an exceptional record in the Heineken Cup they may just be getting past their best. It is going to be even more difficult without the services of Ronan O’Gara and Biarritz are tipped to join Toulouse and Stade Francais and make it three French teams in the last four.
Prediction: Biarritz to win by 8 points
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