Check out our weekly preview and predictions ahead of the final weekend of Zurich Premiership regular season action with still all to play for at both ends of the table.
ZURICH PREMIERSHIP
Saturday 30th April 3pm
Bath v Leeds Tykes
The last day of the Zurich Premiership season on Saturday will bring the curtain down on the most exciting finish ever at both the top and bottom of the league. Leicester Tigers face London Wasps at Welford Road with the winners taking top spot. The position at the bottom is incredible, with five teams still trying to avoid the drop to National One, all separated by only two points.
Saturday’s game at the Rec sees Bath looking to win to take third place, take on Leeds, who probably still need a point to ensure their survival. The game will have added spice as a result of their recent meeting in the Powergen Cup final when Leeds upset the odds and won the cup for the first time, taking Bath’s unbeaten record in the process.
Bath won at London Irish last Sunday with a drop goal in the 4th minute of injury time. This was their fourth consecutive win and took them into third place, one point ahead of Sale Sharks. A bonus point win on Saturday will guarantee third position in the league and a trip to Leicester or Wasps in the Zurich Premiership Semi-final. Bath have played 10 matches at the Rec this season winning five and drawing one, they have been more successful away from home where they have won seven and drawn one.
Leeds were ecstatic on Tuesday when they deservedly beat Harlequins 21-10 in a crucial relegation battle at Headingley. This was their third win on the run and took them off the bottom and up to ninth place. They share 39 points with eighth placed London Irish and tenth placed Northampton, lead Worcester by one point and bottom placed Harlequins by two. If they retain their Zurich Premiership status they are guaranteed Heineken Cup rugby next season as a result of the Powergen Cup win. They have played 10 away matches this season and only beaten Saracens, London Irish and Gloucester.
Bath and Leeds have met seven times previously in the league with Bath winning four to Leeds’ three. Bath have won the last three and will probably extend this sequence on Saturday.
Prediction: Bath to win by 8 points
Gloucester v Saracens
Sixth placed Gloucester entertain fifth placed Saracens in front of another packed house at Kingsholm on Saturday with probably the least at stake from the six Zurich Premiership matches taking place this weekend.
Gloucester were well beaten at Sale in their last match and have had their most disappointing season for four years. They have only won one of their last five matches and can only finish sixth at best as they trail fifth placed Saracens by seven points. They will be looking to improve their recent performances before they go into the Wildcard play-offs. Gloucester have played 10 matches at Kingsholm this season and won six, which is very much below par for the Cherry and Whites.
Saracens have steadily improved this season under Steve Diamond and will finish in their highest league position for four years. They had a big win against Leicester in their last match, their fourth win in the last five matches. They trail third placed Bath by four points and fourth placed Sale by three points and consequently still have an outside chance of taking the third spot and a play-off place. Sarries have played 10 away games this season, winning four and drawing one.
This fixture tends to go with home advantage. Saracens have beaten Gloucester in eight of the last ten matches in London and Gloucester have won the last nine at Kingsholm. Recent form, and the fact Sarries have more to play for, may see this domination broken on Saturday.
Prediction: Saracens to win by 3 points
Leicester Tigers v London Wasps
A marvellous fixture for the last day of the season brings together the top two teams in the Zurich Premiership, level on points, going head-to-head in a match that will decide who will be league leaders for season 2004-05 and take the automatic place at Twickenham for the Zurich Premiership Final, and who will have to settle for second spot and host the third placed club in the Premiership semi-final play-off.
Leicester were never at their best and were beaten by Toulouse last Saturday in the semi-final of the Heineken Cup. Last time out in the Zurich Premiership they were beaten by Saracens at Vicarage Road and after leading the division for the best part of the season, they relinquished their position to London Wasps. Both teams are level on 73 points but Wasps have won 15 matches to Leicester’s 14. Leicester will be without the suspended Martin Corry on Saturday as a result of his sending off at Saracens, and they have also lost Graham Rowntree and Lewis Moody to injuries sustained in the Toulouse game. This is the third term that the end of season play-offs have been with us and after finishing sixth and fifth for the first two, Leicester have qualified for the knockout stages for the first time. They are unbeaten this season in the league at Welford Road, winning nine and drawing with Bath.
London Wasps have again timed their end of season run to perfection and their 32-17 win against Worcester in their last match was their sixth win on the run and took them to the top of the table for the first time this season. They have finished second in the Zurich Premiership for the last two seasons and gone on to win the Premiership Final both times. They have played 10 matches away from home this season, winning seven and losing at Newcastle, Sale and Worcester by one, two and three points respectively.
This is a massive game and could well be a rehearsal for the Zurich Premiership Final on 14th May. Leicester have much the upper hand in these fixtures and have won 13 and drawn one of the 19 meetings since 1995. More importantly, Leicester have won every game played at Welford Road. Taking into account current form rather than history, we will make a bold forecast and go for a London Wasps win.
Prediction: London Wasps to win by 4 points
Harlequins v Sale Sharks
The Sky TV cameras will be at the Stoop on Saturday, and unless Harlequins pull off a big surprise, they will witness the relegation of one of the biggest clubs in English rugby.
Harlequins lost the relegation clash at Leeds on Tuesday and are now bottom of the table, one point behind Worcester Warriors. They now have to beat Sale on Saturday, or at the very least pick up a four try and losing bonus point to have any chance of retaining their place in the Zurich Premiership. This is due to the fact they have only won six matches this season whilst all their rivals at the bottom have won eight. They have won four matches at the Stoop this season, beating Newcastle, Leeds, Saracens and Gloucester.
Sale Sharks were on fire last weekend and booked their European Challenge Cup Final place against Pau, after beating Connacht in both legs of the semi-final. They are trying to win this trophy, and the Heineken Cup qualification that goes with it, for the second time in three years. Back in the Zurich Premiership, they beat Gloucester at Edgeley Park last time out and are now in fourth place, one point behind Bath. They have both won the same number of matches this season and if Sale won on Saturday with bonus point and Bath only collected four points, Sale would take third spot by virtue of a better points difference. For information, Bath have only managed to get one try bonus point all season. Sale have played 10 matches away from home this season and only won four, beating London Wasps, London Irish, Leeds and Northampton.
Harlequins beat a weakened Sale side 19-13 at Edgeley Park in November. This was only the second time they had beaten them in the last 11 matches and Sale should again prove to be too strong on Saturday.
Prediction: Sale Sharks to win by 7 points
Newcastle Falcons v London Irish
A moderate contest at Kingston Park on Saturday is enlivened by the unbelievable situation whereby if London Irish win, they could move above Newcastle and play in the Wildcard play-offs, and if they lose, and results elsewhere go against them, they could be relegated.
Newcastle Falcons lost at Northampton in their last game and have now not won in their last six matches. They remain in seventh place but they are only four points ahead of Saturday’s visitors. Their season’s highlights came in the Heineken Cup where they reached the quarter-finals. They have played 10 matches at home this season winning five, drawing two and losing to Leicester, Worcester and Bath.
London Irish were devastated to lose their last league match at home to Bath, conceding a drop goal deep into injury time. They stayed in eighth place, but they are only two points ahead of bottom club Harlequins. They have only won one of their last five matches and look destined to finish in what is becoming a customary position of eighth or ninth. They have played 10 matches away from home this season and won at Saracens, Northampton, Sale and Harlequins.
These two sides have a very even record against each other over the years. London Irish have had the better of the exchanges recently though winning four of the last five meetings including the last two at Kingston Park. A tough call this, we will go with home advantage and tip Newcastle to shade it.
Prediction: Newcastle Falcons to win by 5 points
Worcester Warriors v Northampton Saints
A match as important as the top two playing each other is the clash of next to bottom Worcester against third bottom Northampton at Sixways. If Harlequins do pull off a shock and beat Sale, then the losers of this match must obtain a bonus point, otherwise they will be relegated to National One.
Worcester Warriors booked their place in the European Shield Final against Auch courtesy of an aggregate victory over Leeds in the semi-final. They have had a fantastic first season in the Zurich Premiership and really battled for their wins, which include three wins from their last six matches. Unfortunately they are now next to the bottom of the league, one point ahead of Harlequins and one point behind Northampton, Leeds and London Irish. They have played 10 matches at Sixways winning five.
Northampton won late on for the second home game on the run when they beat Newcastle 23-22 a fortnight ago. They have finished third in the table for the last two seasons and made the play-off semi-finals, but this season they are third bottom and are battling to avoid relegation. They too have fought hard over the last few weeks and won four of their last six matches. From their 10 away games this season they have won at Harlequins, London Irish and Gloucester.
These two sides have only met once before in a league match when Worcester won at Franklin’s Gardens in November. This match could really go either way but Worcester are hard to beat at home and they may complete a league double over the Saints and survive.
Prediction: Worcester warriors to win by 3 points
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