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TryTracker stats say territory the key to an England win

21 February 2013

  • The IBM TryTracker includes the ‘Keys to the Game’ predict three crucial areas of performance
  • Kicking from hand and attempts at goal may well determine Saturday’s winner

As England showed against Ireland last time out, when they’re at their best their game management and attacking efficiency can rival any in world rugby. And according to the IBM Try Tracker Keys to the Game, France’s best chance of leaving Twickenham with their first win of the 2013 RBS 6 Nations will be to use disruption and distance against the hosts.

TryTracker crunches masses of historic and current rugby data to identify three ‘Keys to the Game’ for each team. These are three crucial areas of performance specific to each team and if a side hits their target in these aspects of their game they will significantly increase their chances of victory.

England keys

  • Beat more than 11 defenders
  • Have more than 7 attempts at goal
  • Achieve a successful tackle rate of more than 92%

England fly half Owen Farrell has shown in the last year that he can kick the best in the world to death given the penalties and the platform by his forwards. If England can manufacture him seven attempts at goal his international kick success rate of 78% will yield around 16 points and provide England with a substantial platform to win the game. Couple that point scoring with a tackle success rate of 92% and Lancaster’s men will be very hard to beat.

France keys

  • Win more than 15 turnovers
  • Kick from hand more than 22 times
  • Run on average more than 4.7m per carry

To nullify the threat from Farrell’s boot France must put as much distance as possible between him and their goal posts making effective kicking from hand an important weapon for them. Gaining territory will mean giving up possession though so they must combine plenty of punting with clinical counter rucking and plenty of turnovers.